扩张的中国高等教育：教育质量与社会分层

本文利用2011年首都高校生发展状况调查的数据，分析北京高校学生的分层现状，并讨论了1999年高等教育扩张对大学生入学和就业分层的影响，发现这一轮扩张强化了社会阶层的复制而非再生产。一方面，在其他条件不变的情况下，来自社会优势阶层家庭的学生有更大概率进入具有更好教育质量的精英院校，这说明中国高等教育在这一时期具有排他性的特征；家庭的社会阶层背景对子女教育分层的影响在中学阶段更加明显；家庭背景对专业选择没有显著影响。另一方面，在控制家庭社会经济背景的影响后，教育质量与学生选择市场化部门就业的概率和工作起薪显著正相关。如果高等教育扩张降低了教育质量，就可能削弱高等教育对社会阶层流动的促进作用。     

社会网络对生活满意度的影响研究——基于京、沪、粤三地的分析

本研究以2008年和2009年在北京市、上海市和广东省进行的“中国家庭追踪调查”的数据为基础，运用多层线性模型和协方差模型探讨了社会网络对生活满意度的影响程度。研究表明，拜年网中朋友的比例、邻里互动频率和非正式社会参与都对生活满意度有积极影响，生活满意度与拜年网规模之间则呈现出“∩”型的相关关系。协方差分析结果表明，社会网络规模的扩大、朋友比例的上升和非正式社会参与频率的增加都有助于提高个人的生活满意度，但邻里互动频率的变化对个人生活满意度的提升作用还有待进一步的研究。     

Making fathers relevant: How practitioners include both parents in talk about parenting programmes

Parenting programmes are recommended as an effective means to support parents in promoting positive relationships with, and managing the behaviour of, their children. One barrier that impedes their successful implementation is that partners, especially fathers, are less frequently recruited by child welfare services. This article reports on a study that investigated how both parents were engaged with parenting services. Direct recordings were made of initial telephone conversations between six practitioners and 28 parents referred to those services and investigated for evidence of how the other parent was recruited. Conversation analysis was used to identify how participants introduced the possibility of both parents being included in the service, how these possibilities were negotiated, and what eventual agreements were made for both parents to be included in future arrangements. Implications for practice, training, and future research are considered.     

历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

Professional blinders? The novel as an eye-opener in organizational analysis

ABSTRACT

Scholarly textbooks often follow a logic where suitable empirical cases are selected to illustrate the theoretical and analytical points that we as scholars want to make. But what would happen if we would do the opposite: build a textbook on a novel written by a novelist for such purpose and let the theories explain the actions and emotions of fictional characters? In this article, we share and reflect upon our experiences of co-authoring a textbook in organization theory together with a professional novelist. We argue that the novel can function as an eye-opener in organizational analysis, forcing us to look beyond more static and rationalistic perspectives on organizations as well as the stereotypes of such. We build and relate our experiences to the growing literature about using fiction in scholarly work and discuss the potential of such genre-bending work when we bring in flesh and blood into the analyses.     

Inference and optimal design of multiple constant-stress testing for generalized half-normal distribution under type-II progressive censoring

The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion.     

远海岛礁冷链物流体系优化模型及其集成算法

为研究远海岛礁渔获冷链物流的运行方案，本文选择了岛礁冷库储存中转和海上直接收购等两种不同的渔获运输方式，同时考虑了中转冷库选址、中转运输和直接收购船舶配备、航线配置、在渔场停留时间和渔获运输损耗等诸多复杂问题，构建了远海冷链物流体系组合优化模型。求解时，提出了一种以遗传算法（GA）为外部框架，以改进的模拟植物生长算法（PGSA）为内部模块，通过信息传递实现内外连接交互的集成算法。最后，以我国南海远海岛礁及渔场为实例进行分析，取得了较好效果。通过与传统遗传算法对比，本文优化结果、稳定性及计算速度等均有明显提高，从而证明了本文所建模型与算法的合理性和有效性。     

确定含油气面积存在的问题及正确的方法

本文对传统的石油地质理论定义的含油气面积提出了异议，用倒转背斜油气藏、断层下盘油气藏和不整合面下油气藏的实例阐明在传统定义下确定含油气面积存在的问题，指出用这种方法确定的含油气面积小于实际面积。笔者将含油气面积定义为含油气体在水平面上的投影区域，并推荐了三种正确的确定方法、     

Political and economic determinants of expenditure on day services for persons with intellectual disabilities or autism

This study investigates whether the Swedish national entitlement legislation, which is known to be one of the most developed in Europe for persons with intellectual disabilities or autism, accomplishes its aim to provide equal quality of day services independent of location. We estimated a reduced-form model of demand and supply-side determinants of a latent quality variable for day-service programmes using panel data on expenditure per attendee for the 290 Swedish municipalities 2004–2012. We found that expenditure per attendee is among others affected by changes of the local tax base and outcome in elections to the local assemblies. These results imply that rights of persons with intellectual disabilities with regard to equal quality of day services independent of where they live are not fully honoured in budget allocation decisions made by local governments.